The “Establishment Survey,” which the news media latches onto and reports the job numbers from, is created using a baseline.  If the number of jobs created is above that baseline, then there is a positive report, the higher above the baseline, the higher number of jobs reported as being created.  If the number of jobs created is below the baseline, then the result is a loss of jobs.  The critical issue is where the baseline is drawn.  If it were to remain static (absolute) then the job numbers reported in the “Establishment Survey” would be reliable.  If, however, the baseline is moved either up or down arbitrarily the “Establishment Survey” numbers become highly unreliable; “A Joke,” as one observer called it.

For whatever reason BLS has moved the baseline arbitrarily, creating a situation where the “Establishment Survey” differs from both the ADP and BLS Household surveys.  In the case of the January numbers the baseline was moved downward by 233,000 jobs.  If this had not been done the BLS “Establishment Survey” number of jobs created would be approximately 120,000 new jobs created, close to the ADP Survey’s finding of 107,000.  Factor in further that the “Establishment Survey” includes government as well as private sector jobs while the ADP Survey only counts jobs in the private sector and the difference between the two would be even closer. So, it’s highly probable that the BLS “Establishment Survey” has overstated the number of job actually created.

The point is your government may not be being honest with you.  The reasons are for you to decide, but as a wise man once said, “Don’t take everything on face value.”  Check other available sources and see whether they confirm what you are being told is the truth.